AVAX/USDT · 1D · 8 Nov 2026
Avalanche (AVAX) price analysis — daily chart
Avalanche (AVAX) is at 8.161 on the 1D chart. The setup is clearly bearish while AVAX stays under 12.12: a double top has completed.
After the spike to 12.01: a 8.000–11.729 range, price in the lower third
The read
The setup is clearly bearish while AVAX stays under 12.12: a double top has completed.
Backing it: it is still digesting the spike, the weekly chart is down and the indicators favour the sellers' side.
Price is under the 50-day average (9.919). It is over the 200-day average (8.131).
The last 5 days are down 1.9%, nearly every high lower than the one before.
Price is 30.4% under 11.729, the top of the range it has built since the bounce, and 2.0% over 8.000, the low of that range.
The first warning would come earlier: a daily close over 8.840, the old low it broke down from, 7.7% away.
What kills the setup: a daily close over 12.12, 32.7% away.
Why
For it: price is under the average price buyers have paid since the 6.037 low, 8.958, so those buyers are losing money; more trading has happened on down candles than on up ones, so sellers have been the more active side.
Against it: MACD and OBV show a bullish divergence: price set a lower low that momentum did not confirm.
If-then
While AVAX stays under 12.12 the setup stays bearish; 8.000 is the next line it has to break.
A 1D close above 12.12 ends the double top; no tested level above it on this chart — the next round number is 12.50.
A 1D close below 8.000 loses the floor inside a downtrend — a new low in the trend's direction; the next level down is 7.218.
Key levels
8.000 is the floor — the low of the base. It is also the prior week low.
11.729 is where sellers keep showing up: it held 3 of 5 visits. It is also the prior month high.
8.272, the 2-TF resistance 1.4% above price: sellers turned price there on 3 of 5 visits.
The full picture
On Sep 29 AVAX spiked to 12.01, 71% over its 30-day low, on 2× normal volume; it has since traded between 8.000 and 12.01.
On the 1D chart, AVAX has traded between 8.000 and 11.729 since the bounce. Now at 8.161, it sits in the lower third of that range; the last daily close was 8.233.
Sellers keep pressing — the daily tops have come down from 9.039 to 8.858, onto a floor near 8.085.
The weekly picture: a weekly downtrend, 94% under the all-time high; on the daily, price is above the 200-day average (8.131), and the 50-day average is above the 200-day average. The daily trend goes the same way as the weekly.
Against BTC: over the last 5 daily candles AVAX moved -1.9% and BTC -1.2% — AVAX is moving with it.
The trend has been the sellers': the weekly chart is down.
The rest of the chart backs the downtrend. Price is under the average price buyers have paid since the 6.037 low, 8.958, so those buyers are losing money. More trading has happened on down candles than on up ones, so sellers have been the more active side.
What doesn't fit: The trend is weak — ADX 23, under the 25 where a trend is real, with sellers ahead (−DI 23, +DI 16). MACD and OBV show a bullish divergence: price set a lower low that momentum did not confirm. These are the cracks in an otherwise intact downtrend.
Key levels
| Level | Price | From price | Role |
|---|
| Swing high | 12.01 | +47.1% | swing, read |
| Prior month high | 11.729 | +43.7% | calendar, sr |
| Swing high | 8.840 | +8.3% | swing, read |
| Golden pocket | 8.756 | +7.3% | golden pocket, order block |
| Fib retracement | 8.627 | +5.7% | fib, sr |
| Monthly open | 8.559 | +4.9% | calendar |
| Fib retracement | 8.499 | +4.1% | fib, sr |
| Prior day high (not retested) | 8.367 | +2.5% | calendar, swing |
| 2-TF resistance | 8.272 | +1.4% | confluent, order block |
Updated 8 Nov 2026. Run a live Avalanche read →
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