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since the last readPrice has left the range the coin's last read drew.
Price has left the range the coin's last read drew.
Daily downtrend since Sep 3, bouncing from the 3,872 low — the last lower high is 4,211
The setup is clearly bearish while XAUT stays under 4,091: price has bounced into a level that used to be support and now acts as a ceiling.
Backing it: on the daily chart, each peak and each dip has been lower than the last.
Price is under the 50-day average (4,129). It is under the 200-day average (4,287).
The last 5 days are up 3.1%, nearly every low higher than the one before.
Price is 3.7% under 4,211,, the last lower high, and 4.8% over 3,872,, the trend's low.
What kills the setup: a daily close over 4,091, 0.9% away.
For it: price is under the average price buyers have paid since the 3,963 low, 4,223, so those buyers are losing money; more trading has happened on down candles than on up ones, so sellers have been the more active side.
Against it: the last 5 days are up 3.1%; The trend has real strength, with the buyers in control; price is above the Monthly VWAP (3,996).
While XAUT stays under 4,091 the setup stays bearish; 3,872 is the next line it has to break.
A 1D close above 4,091 ends the bounce into resistance in a downtrend; the next level up is 4,222.
A 1D close below 3,872 carries the downtrend past its last low; no tested level below it on this chart — the next round number is 3,500.
3,872 is the floor — the trend's low, set Nov 1. It is also the monthly open.
4,211 is the ceiling — the last lower high (Oct 12) — the line the downtrend stays under.
XAUT has been in a downtrend since Sep 3: its lows have stepped down (4,243, then 4,076, then 3,872), and so have its highs (4,500, then 4,397, then 4,211). Price is 4.8% over the trend's low, 3,872 (Nov 1). The last lower high is 4,211 (Oct 12), 3.7% above price; no daily close has gone over it.
The weekly picture: a weekly downtrend, 76% under the cycle high; on the daily, price is below the 200-day average (4,287), and the 50-day average is below the 200-day average. The daily has a falling trend of its own; the weekly has not picked a side.
Against BTC: over the last 5 daily candles XAUT moved +3.1% and BTC -1.2% — XAUT is the stronger chart.
Sellers have had the daily since Sep 3: each bounce has been sold lower than the last, and no daily close has cleared a lower high. The bounce from 3,872 is the buyers' push against it; it has not reached 4,211 yet.
Nothing in the bounce says the selling has changed character. Price is under the average price buyers have paid since the 3,963 low, 4,223, so those buyers are losing money. More trading has happened on down candles than on up ones, so sellers have been the more active side.
What doesn't fit: The trend has real strength, with the buyers in control. Price is above the Monthly VWAP (3,996). This is what the bounce has going for it.
| Level | Price | From price | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swing high | 4,287 | +5.7% | swing, read |
| Prior month high (not retested) | 4,222 | +4.1% | calendar, read edge |
| Read ceiling | 4,211 | +3.8% | read edge |
| Naked POC | 4,142 | +2.1% | naked poc, sr |
| Order block | 4,113 | +1.4% | order block, fib |
| 3-TF resistance | 4,091 | +0.9% | calendar, confluent |
| 3-TF support | 4,030 | -0.7% | confluent, fib |
| Fib retracement | 3,985 | -1.8% | fib, swing |
| 3-TF support | 3,963 | -2.3% | confluent, golden pocket |
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